Financial Indie: The Facebook IPO


This is a special edition of “Financial Indie” focusing on the upcoming Facebook initial public offering (IPO). Financial Indie is a series of articles designed to help writers finance their careers. If you have an investment question, please post it and I’ll try to incorporate it into a future article.

Almost 900 million people, or almost 13 percent of the earth’s population, use Facebook, the world’s top-ranked social media website, to keep in touch with family, friends and business contacts. Millions of companies and individuals have pages dedicated to promoting a product or themselves. Facebook is, in a word, a Juggernaut (or pick another synonym for "huge"). It is far and away the world’s largest social media website, as this infographic shows. For many writers, Facebook is an almost indispensable tool to market their books and build their brands.

Facebook Page

On Friday, May 18, 2012, Facebook will reportedly sell 422 million shares to the public at U.S.$34-$38 per share in an estimated $15-$16 billion offering. When the shares price late Thursday, they will likely be at or near $38. When they begin trading on Friday, it’s a safe bet that the price per share will at least double given how highly anticipated this offering is. I would not be surprised if shares of Facebook (FB) trade at more than $100 per share by early next week.

The May 2011 IPO of LinkedIn (LNKD), a much smaller social media rival, offers a good road map as to what might happen after Facebook goes public. Shares of LinkedIn rose as much as 171 percent in their first day of trading and closed at $94.25, more than 109 percent above the $45 IPO price. The stock went on to peak above $100 per share the following week and now trades above $110. I expect Facebook to perform as well or better, perhaps trading on Friday at a price higher than that of LinkedIn.

If you use Facebook — and chances are you do — you may be wondering whether you should invest in the social media giant after it goes public. You may be familiar with the site and know what it can do and how powerful it is. You may have also heard the investing adage that you should buy what you know. If you know Facebook, does that mean you should invest in it?

The short-term answer is a qualified "no." Although Facebook may be a good investment in the long run, think twice about buying shares immediately after the company goes public. Now, I’m not a naysayer who shies away from hot stocks. I take calculated risks. In August 2004, against the advice of some financially savvy individuals who thought it was overpriced, I purchased shares of Google (GOOG) via Dutch auction for U.S.$85 per share. By late 2008, shares of Google reached almost $715, a sevenfold gain, before dropping to $292 during the 2009 financial crisis. Google now trades at just over $611 per share. Google has been a good investment for me. I have bought and sold Google shares three times and made money each time. Taking a calculated risk on a hot stock can be a lucrative bet if done right.

Facebook’s IPO, however, is nothing like Google’s. When Google went public, it tried to balance the playing field for investors by auctioning off shares to all interested parties, institutional and retail investor alike, at a set price. Facebook is going public via a traditional offering where shares are allocated at face value to a limited number of investors and then sold in the market at whatever price it demands. Unless you’re underwriting the offering or stand to make a mint from going public like co-founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg, who will make an estimated $20.28 Billion (yes, that’s a "B") when his company goes public, you’ll be at the mercy of the market when you try to buy your shares. You may try to scoop up some after they go public, but you’ll be bidding along with the well-informed masses who are keen to get in on the action. You and a multitude of other bidders who are desperate to get their hands on the stock will pump up the price to a ridiculously high valuation. The higher it goes, the greater the risk that the price will plummet once interest cools.

I believe that in the long run Facebook stock will be a good investment for those who buy shares at the right price. One way to determine whether to purchase shares of Facebook is to wait until after the company releases its first post-IPO quarterly results. Investors will probably bid up the stock before the earnings results are announced. If they’re good, expect the share price to remain stable or go up slightly; if earnings are a disappointment, the price could fall substantially as investors readjust their expectations. Either way, read the analysts’ reports to see whether they consider Facebook a good long-term investment. Let their analyses, which could range from “strong buy” to “sell,” guide your decision whether to invest.

If you absolutely can’t wait to invest in Facebook, consider buying some shares on the "dip," a lull in the price that invariably occurs one or two weeks after IPO. That’s when the initial buyers bail out of the stock to lock in short-term gains, bidding down the price.

I plan to buy some shares of Facebook (FB) in the next few months and hold them for the long term, but I will wait for the ideal moment to buy. I can’t tell you when that will be until after the company goes public. I had an opportunity to purchase privately-held shares of the company on the secondary market in the mid-$30s but opted out. Time will tell whether my "go-slow" approach to Facebook — in contrast to my enthusiastic participation in Google’s IPO — is a good move.

Click here to read the previous edition of Financial Indie.

Disclaimer: I am an accredited private investor. I am not a certified financial planner or investment advisor. The information contained in these articles should not be considered professional investment advice. Use your own discretion when pursuing investment opportunities. For specific investment advice, consult an investment professional.

buythumbM.G. Edwards is a writer of books and stories in the mystery, thriller and science fiction-fantasy genres. He also writes travel adventures. He is founder of Brilliance Equity LLC, an investment firm.

Edwards is author of Kilimanjaro: One Man’s Quest to Go Over the Hill, a non-fiction account of his attempt to summit Mount Kilimanjaro, Africa’s highest mountain. His collection of short stories called Real Dreams: Thirty Years of Short Stories available as an e-book and in print on Amazon.com. He lives in Bangkok, Thailand with his wife Jing and son Alex.

For more books or stories by M.G. Edwards, visit his web site at www.mgedwards.com or his blog, World Adventurers. Contact him at me@mgedwards.com, on Facebook, on Google+, or @m_g_edwards on Twitter.

© 2012 Brilliance Press. All rights reserved. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted without the written consent of the author.

Financial Indie: Financing Your Writing Career


Note: “Financial Indie” is a series of articles designed to help writers finance their careers. If you have an investment question, please post it, and I’ll try to incorporate it into a future article.

Financial Indie 1I cheered when I saw my Apple (AAPL) stock jump nine percent on April 25 after another great quarter, earning, perhaps, a better return in one night than I will from a year’s worth of effort to sell books. It made me wonder why so many writers chase book sales to earn a living when so few are successful, as the Wall Street Journal pointed out in an article about the self-publishing industry. While writing is an admirable calling, the economics of the publishing industry suggest that most writers need alternate sources of income to support themselves financially, at least at the outset of their careers.

After I started writing full time, I found no lack of information on how to write and publish books but few resources on how writers, particularly those with limited budgets, could finance their projects and supplement their income. Most articles I’ve read dealing with the financial aspect of writing focused on how to save money or publish on a tight budget. A few suggested doing freelancing and editing jobs. Those are viable ways for would-be authors to make money, but they can also be time consuming. Every minute a writer spends working for someone else is one less minute spent on their own writing projects. There are other ways to earn extra income that take less time and offer a higher rate of return. Investing is one.

Self-publishing a book is not cheap. A writer may pay more than U.S.$1,000 to write, edit, and publish a book (excluding marketing expenses). It costs hundreds of dollars, if not more, to hire a professional editor to polish a manuscript and a designer to create a book cover. An e-book cover can cost as much as U.S.$100; a print version more than $200. The writer will need to purchase an ISBN from W.W. Bowker for each book medium and copyright it. Although Kindle Digital Publishing, Barnes & Noble, and Smashwords publish and distribute e-books for free, publishers usually charge for premium services such as expanded distribution and print-on-demand. Marketing expenses vary. If a writer is good at using social media, they may pay nothing to advertise. Some pay thousands of dollars to hire professional marketers. Those looking to hire an agent and publish through a traditional publishing house should expect to spend money to pitch their book.

What this means is that writing costs money in the short term, and until you earn a respectable income from book sales, you’ll need a way to finance your efforts. For most, it means working full time and writing when you can, but it doesn’t have to be that way. By planning ahead and investing wisely, you can build a stable income that will support your writing and help you move away from depending on a paycheck toward becoming a financially-independent writer.

I’ve been investing for a long time. It took me years to build an investment portfolio that gave me the opportunity to leave my day job. It wasn’t an easy option waiting to launch my writing career, but my patience was rewarded last year when I took the plunge and left my job to write full time. It gives me piece of mind knowing that investments such as Apple will support me until I establish myself as an indie author.

If you don’t have an investment portfolio, you should. How do you get started? Should you buy shares of Apple at more than U.S.$600 a share and hope they reach U.S.$800? No. Chasing returns is a fool’s game. I don’t recommend chasing “hot” stocks, even one as mighty as Apple. You can purchase Apple by owning shares of mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETF) that limit your exposure to price swings.

Start by writing a personal investment plan. Determine your financial goals and set a timeline. How much do you want to earn, and how long will it take to achieve it? Look at your budget to see how much you can set aside to build your financial portfolio. Just as you would outline a novel before you write it, you need a plan before you invest.

Figure out how much you can save each month and write it down. Setting aside a small amount in the near term can go a long way to supplementing your income in the long run. Look at your cash flows and decide what discretionary spending you can eliminate – including from your writing budget — and how much you can save. If you stop buying what you don’t need, how much money will you have to grow?

See if you can set aside about U.S.$100 per month. In future articles, we’ll use this as a base to help you build your portfolio.

Click here to read the next article in the “Financial Indie” series.

buythumbM.G. Edwards is a writer of books and stories in the mystery, thriller and science fiction-fantasy genres. He also writes travel adventures. He is founder of Brilliance Equity LLC, an investment firm.

Edwards is author of Kilimanjaro: One Man’s Quest to Go Over the Hill, a non-fiction account of his attempt to summit Mount Kilimanjaro, Africa’s highest mountain. His collection of short stories called Real Dreams: Thirty Years of Short Stories available as an e-book and in print on Amazon.com. He lives in Bangkok, Thailand with his wife Jing and son Alex.

For more books or stories by M.G. Edwards, visit his web site at www.mgedwards.com or his blog, World Adventurers. Contact him at me@mgedwards.com, on Facebook, on Google+, or @m_g_edwards on Twitter.

© 2012 Brilliance Press. All rights reserved. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted without the written consent of the author.